What are the gold price predictions? This is a topic of concern to us all. Despite the uncertainty generated by Trump’s policies and China’s reaction, growing demand could boost the prices of these precious metals, especially in the second half of the year.
Factors such as central bank purchases, rising demand in Asia, high global public debt, low real interest rates, and political instability are expected to benefit gold through 2025.
Platinum is likely to surpass $1,000 an ounce due to increased demand for non-automotive and jewelry applications; while palladium could see a slight increase, approaching $1,000 an ounce.
Ofi Invest AM maintains a favorable outlook for precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) due to the expectation of increased demand, as well as geopolitical and market instability.
Metals Outlook for 2025
Ofi Invest AM analysts anticipate an uncertain outlook for 2025 due to Trump’s policies, which could impact global trade through the implementation of tariffs, although negotiations between the United States and China on this issue are likely.
Gold: It could reach $3,000/ounce
The year 2024 was a roller coaster for gold. As an asset that doesn’t generate income (neither coupons nor dividends), rising real rates caused prices to fall.
However, the value of gold remained stable and even rose in 2024, thanks to two key factors:
- Growing investor interest in Asia, especially China, driven by the decline in the Chinese stock markets and real estate sector.
- The gold accumulation policy adopted by central banks, which has been in place for several years.
Silver: Benefiting from rising demand and production constraints
In 2024, silver experienced a surge driven by a favorable environment for precious metals. Despite the results of the US elections, and their impact on the dollar and interest rates, prices managed to close the year with double-digit growth.
According to the Silver Institute, demand rose by 1% during 2024, and this year is expected to be among the highest silver consumption years in history. This growth responds to a significant shift in the market.
Supply shortages, declining inventories and the likely continuation of rising industrial demand are reasons to suggest that the price of silver could increase by 2025, reaching an increase of close to 20%, i.e. between approximately $36 and $38.
Platinoids: Price increases are anticipated in 2025, being more pronounced for platinum than palladium.
The year 2024 was a difficult one for platinum and palladium. Both metals are key components in internal combustion vehicles for catalytic converters, and weakness in this sector affected them negatively. However, the decline in electric vehicle sales in Europe proved to be a benefit for them in the last year.
As for platinum, it is likely that the increase in demand in non-automotive sectors (such as fertilizers, hard disks, electronics, mirrors, among others) and a decrease in its production will generate a deficit in the market. It is estimated that this shortage could result in an increase of 30 tons in a market of approximately 250 tons, which would push prices above US$1,000 per ounce and could even reach US$1,100 by 2025.
For the moment, this market is not taking off, but more periods of falling electricity prices, especially in Europe, could lead to higher subsidies to the sector to help its expansion.
As for palladium, prices are expected to rise only slightly in 2025. The expected reduction in production and the decline in the number of internal combustion engine vehicles, which account for the largest share of demand, could push prices to between $950 and $1,000 per ounce, but not above this level.